地狱之国——经济学视野下的朝鲜【序章】

作者: 弘广 分类: 蛮族勇士 发布时间: 2017-02-17 11:24 ė 6159条评论

2017-02-17 老蛮→ 剑起龙吟

地狱之国——经济学视野下的朝鲜(序章)

 

先给出这样一组数据:2015年朝鲜的总人口为2516万,粮食产量仅为540万吨(联合国粮农组织的跟踪监控数据,包括了全部谷类及玉米土豆类粮食作物。另一个可以作为参照的数据是韩国政府的监控数据,仅为450万吨),每个人一年只能分配到215公斤粮食。这么算下来,人均每天只有一斤二两的粮食。我不知道各位能不能理解这个数据有多么可怕。我在此给出一组对比数据,以便加深大家的理解:1980年,赤贫的中国刚刚开始改革开放的时候,那一年中国的粮食产量为32056万吨,对比当时98705万的总人口,人均年粮食供应量能达到325公斤。1980年的中国,竟然较2015年的朝鲜人均粮食供应量高出足足51%!1980年的中国遍地饥民,国人普遍面有菜色,能吃成胖子,是当时的国人最大的奢望。就朝鲜现在这种惨淡的粮食供应水平,我们可以确信,这个国家必定是饿殍遍地,老百姓的生活惨烈得犹如地狱。

 

然而,这个国家却始终保持着高度的社会和政治稳定。无论国际局势如何风云变化,中国开启改革开放,南美和阿拉伯的军政府挨个被推翻,地狱之中朝鲜始终稳定的存续。这其中必定蕴含着相当深刻的经济学规律,而将这个规律提炼出来,对于当下的中国来说,一定具有相当重大的借鉴意义。

——是以为序。

(注:本文将会分章推送,全文完成后也不会汇总发表。本题材高度敏感,内容也会大量涉及争议性史实,被秒删的可能性极大。请各位注意跟踪本公号,即时阅读。)

 

【1、大战前夕】

1945年二战结束的时刻,有两个地理位置很特殊的国家被苏联和美国一分为二。位于欧洲腹地的德国被切割成东西两块,而位于亚洲腹地的朝鲜,则被切割成南北两边。这两个被人为割裂的国家在此后将会迎来不同的命运。东西两德之间一直维持着脆弱的和平,并最终在1990年完成了统一。而南北两韩,则在1950年6月爆发了朝鲜战争。这场战争彻底的撕裂了朝鲜半岛,并永久的关上了两边统一的大门。关于这场战争,已经有了相当多的深入解读。而本文的切入角度,当然是经济。我们必须知道的是,从1945年二战结束,到1950年朝鲜战争爆发,整个世界的经济领域,到底在发生什么。

 

1946年,国际货币基金组织和国际复兴开发银行(即世界银行)在华盛顿正式开始营业,这在事实上宣告了“布雷顿森林体系”的正式确立。作为关注经济的人,我们必须对布雷顿森林体系有着基本的了解。它们的章程规定,每个国家的货币币值都必须使用黄金或与黄金等价的美元来表示,并且未经批准不得修改。这就在事实上确立了美元=黄金的信用关系,美元自此逐渐成长为国际货币,为世人所普遍接受。即便是到1971年布雷顿森林体系崩溃,美元与黄金脱钩,然而全世界已经使用了25年的美元,这已经是整整一代人的时间,美元本身已经具有了足以替换黄金的信用力。因此美元在此之后继续成长,全球经济也最终进入了美元时代,美国也就是在这之后逐渐成长为真正的世界霸主。我们今天回头来看,这一切的起源,当然就是1946年国际货币基金组织和世界银行的成立。而苏联,没有加入到布雷顿僧林体系之中,苏联的货币卢布,也就此正式站在了美元的对立面。这里必须强调的是:当时的中华民国,加入到了布雷顿森林体系之中,是国际货币基金组织的创始国之一。

 

到1947年,国际经济领域发生了另一件大事:关税及贸易总协定由23个国家在日瑞瓦签订。这是全世界第一份国际性的贸易协定,成员国之间相互放弃贸易壁垒,并减免关税,加强相互之间的经济往来。在这个时候,全球的经济秩序已经大体成型:以美元作为交易媒介,实现联盟内部的商品和资金的自由流通。当然,苏联同样没有加入到这个体系之中。这里同样必须强调的是,中华民国政府也是关税协定的创始国之一,当时的中国正在努力融入到当时的全球经济体系之中。不过1949年我大中国政府把中华民国赶到台湾之后,立刻就拒绝承认布雷顿森林体系和关税总协定,坚定的与苏联站在了一边。到我国实施改革开放之后,如何回归国际经济体系,就成了一件非常头痛的事。

 

我们现在回头来看,到1950年,朝鲜战争爆发的前夕,全球的经济事实上已经被分割为两极:布雷顿森林体系和关税总协定规则之下的欧美经济联盟,以及以苏联为首的社会主义国家经济联盟。这两者之间的差别可谓是天差地别。

 

欧美经济联盟之间地位相对平等,各方之间白纸黑字,权利义务写得明明白白。资金如何进出,币值如何确定,税务如何安排,争议如何处理,都清晰明了,参与到游戏之中的每个国家,都深刻的理解自己所处的位置。这在当时来说,还真算是一个共赢的设定。战后的欧洲各国刚刚走出战火,普遍都是一片废墟,最缺的就是钱。美国手里虽然有钱,但是对于如何拿钱去扶持贫穷的欧洲各国,同样也是一头雾水。在布雷顿森林体系和关税总协定建立之前,美国对欧洲重建的投资,只能是小规模的,不成体系的。现在美欧之间终于建立起了完善的贸易规则体系,美国政府终于可以发起大规模的援助计划,于是从1948年4月起,“马歇尔计划”正式启动,美国开始投入巨资到欧洲的重建之中,美国政府,以及美国的金融系统大量投资于欧洲的基础设施和工业企业的建设,只花了短短4年时间,就将欧洲经济从一片萧条之中拯救了回来,恢复到了战前的水平。

(杜鲁门政府讨论援欧计划)

然而苏联这边的社会主义国家联盟之间,则毫无规则可言。斯大林同志对于建立公开自由平等的贸易规则体系毫无兴趣。从1947年开始,为了抵制欧美经济联盟的成立以及随后的马歇尔计划,苏联与东欧国家签订了一系列双边经贸协议,到1949年,苏联组织起了所谓的“经济互助委员会”,协调整个社会主义国家联盟之间的经济关系。然而此前那系列双边协议,以及这个经互会的核心纲领,都可以用两句话来概括:第一,斯大林同志永远是对的;第二,如果认为斯大林同志错了,请参考第一条。联盟国之间的贸易往来如果发生了争议,除了依靠斯大林同志一言而决之外,唯一的应对办法,就是相互之间大打出手。而斯大林同志在有生之年,对于经互会,唯一感兴趣的事情就是低价强行购买联盟国家出产的原材料。但凡有哪个国家的经济表现稍微显眼一点,就会遭遇斯大林同志,以及此后继任的每一届苏联领导人的坚决打压。在国际经济的问题上,苏联,乃至整个社会主义国家联盟基本上就是一群白痴。从这个角度上看,苏联最后的亡国,乃至整个社会主义国家联盟的崩灭,也是必然的事。

到1950年,朝鲜战争爆发前夕,整个世界事实上已经分成了这样的两极:一边是有着完善规则的欧美联盟,美元是整个联盟的通用货币,其它所有国家的货币币值与美元之间的关系都清晰明了。美国负责向联盟之中的穷国输出购买力,扶持它们的经济发展。另一边,则是毫无规则可言的社会主义国家联盟,苏联卢布具有至高无上的地位,然而其它国家的货币与卢布之间到底是个啥关系,没人能说得清楚。苏联根据其领导人的个人喜好,决定是否要向联盟之中的某个成员国提供援助,并可以随意撤回这种援助。在这个时刻,1949年新成立的我大中国政府,从欧美经济联盟里脱身出来,义无反顾的投身到社会主义国家联盟,并满门心思的试图向老大苏联递交投名状。这件事成为了压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草:朝鲜半岛的脆弱的和平将因此被打破,战争很快就要降临。

这一场战争,将会是内部秩序井然的美欧联盟,对抗内部秩序混乱不堪的社会主义国家联盟。而这场战争的结果,在改变整个世界的同时,也会将两个国家葬入深渊:朝鲜,以及中国。

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